We usually produce a range of variant projections to convey possible different outcomes based on different future scenarios. For example, our migration assumptions are based on a 25-year period in which migration has varied considerably. However, it is important to remember that we use long-term, observed demographic trends to guide our assumptions on likely future demographic trends. This is especially the case where some data sources were interrupted in the early part of the pandemic in 2020.
Demographic changes update#
Once again, we plan to update our demographic assumptions and benefit from revised population estimates for the decade from 2011.įor our 2020-based interim NPPs we have updated all our assumptions and used the latest data to give the best possible insights on future population change and what this means for the overall population.Įngagement with users of these statistics highlighted that this is a time of uncertainty as possible impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic continue to unfold and it is challenging to distinguish between short- and long-term demographic changes with some demographic measures. These will include Census 2021 data and a range of variant projections to give an indication of the outcomes which would come from different demographic scenarios for fertility, migration and mortality. We plan for our next set of national population projections to be 2021-based and published in 2023. This is because they are based on the 2011 Census and we are at our furthest point away from this before new census data becomes available. This means that whilst we are processing and quality assuring census outputs from Census 2021 ahead of publishing our estimates from late spring 2022, our current mid-year estimates have a higher uncertainty compared to earlier points in the last ten years. In our current population statistics system, the mid-year estimates continue to be rolled forward from one census to the next (with births, deaths and migration factored in). Furthermore, there has probably never been a more difficult time to develop the assumptions for such long-term projections.įor our NPPs we use the most up-to-date mid-year population estimates as the base population from which we project forwards for up to 100 years. Our previous blog referenced increased uncertainty in our population estimates. For this reason, new sets of projections are normally published every two years when the underlying assumptions are reviewed in light of more recent evidence.Ī time of uncertainty in demographic trends It is important that projections are not viewed as predictions or forecasts, but as an indication of the future if past demographic trends continue.
Ongoing and extensive user feedback has continued to highlight the wide use and importance of 2020-based NPPs for a number of long-term planning and policy making areas including pensions and government spending. Alongside this we have used these projections to update our past and projected period and cohort lifetables which show boys and girls born in 2045 are projected to live longer than 90 years on average. This shows projected UK population growth is slower than in the 2018-based projections. Using our most up-to-date population estimates and assumptions about future fertility, migration and mortality we have been able to give an indication of the future size and composition of the population. This is an interim set of projections to reflect the short interval between the 2020-based principal projection and subsequent projections which will incorporate data from Census 2021. National population projections (NPPs) published today tell us about the potential future size of the population of the UK and its constituent countries. In this blog James Robards explains some of the considerations and challenges in developing national population projections, particularly at a point in time when the demographic impacts arising from the Covid-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic continue to unfold. Projecting the possible future size and composition of the UK population is of importance for national level decision-making and policy.
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